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International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies

05 Jun 2026 17:00 UTC

RUSSIA vs BURKINA FASO

Final 3:0 Almanac Moment

Russia won Last goal: Russia

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Lechi Sadulaev — Russia
⚽ Aleksey Miranchuk — Russia
🟥 Mohamed Ouédraogo (straight red) — Burkina Faso

2nd half

⚽ Ilya Vakhania — Russia

Model predictions were

44%

1X2

Russia

Result: Russia

47%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No

82%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

48%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

64%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

81%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 64% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 24% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 333 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 263 completed matches.

1X2 47% (Average)

Both teams to score 46% (Average)

Total 1.5 57% (Good)

Total 2.5 46% (Average)

Total 3.5 60% (Good)

Total 4.5 78% (Strong)

Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 11 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 55% (Average)

Both teams to score 36% (Weak)

Total 1.5 64% (Good)

Total 2.5 45% (Average)

Total 3.5 64% (Good)

Total 4.5 64% (Good)

Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 47% (Average)

201 predictions

Both teams to score 55% (Average)

126 predictions

Total 1.5 67% (Strong)

207 predictions

Total 2.5 43% (Weak)

126 predictions

Total 3.5 68% (Strong)

206 predictions

Total 4.5 84% (Strong)

239 predictions

Match overview

Final result breakdown for Russia vs Burkina Faso. The match ended 3-0 in International · Int. Friendly · Friendlies. The model leaned toward Russia with a marginal edge (43.6%).

The outcome aligned with the model’s expectation. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 77.6% of matches across a sample of 263 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 36.4% in a sample of 11 team involvements.

Across settled lines, market signals aligned strongly with the final outcome. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (82.1%) came in as a strong signal and was correctly identified. Over 2.5 goals (47.8%) came in as a weak indicator and held up in the final outcome.

Both teams to score (46.5%) was confirmed by the match. The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.