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09 Apr 2026 00:10 UTC

SARMIENTO vs TRISTAN SUAREZ

Final 1:0 Almanac Moment

Sarmiento won

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Pablo Magnín — Sarmiento

Model predictions were

51%

1X2

Sarmiento

Result: Sarmiento

54%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No

48%

Total 1.5

Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under

51%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

54%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

54%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

29%

Score

1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 70% (Strong)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 10 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 21% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 53 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview

Match result and prediction analysis for Sarmiento vs Tristan Suarez. The match ended 1-0 in Argentina · Cup. The model leaned toward Sarmiento with a weak indicator (51%).

The outcome aligned with the model’s expectation. Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (48.4%) appeared as a weak indicator and held up in the final outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (51.4%) was correctly identified, both teams to score (53.6%) aligned with the result. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 86.1% of matches across a sample of 43 games. Team-level data remains useful for understanding style and chance creation across comparable fixtures.

The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

SARMIENTO vs TRISTAN SUAREZ

Match timeline

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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