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Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff

17 May 2026 18:00 UTC

CASARANO vs UNION BRESCIA

Final 0:3

Union Brescia won Last goal: Union Brescia

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Davide Balestrero — Union Brescia

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Maikol Francesco Negro (own goal) — Union Brescia
  2. ⚽ Valerio Crespi — Union Brescia

Model predictions were

As expected
39%
1X2
Casarano
Result: Union Brescia
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
9%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 43% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 149 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,135 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1117 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 78 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 62% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
774 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
532 predictions
Total 1.5 70% (Strong)
799 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
690 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
939 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
1047 predictions

Match overview

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Both teams to score Yes
Over/Under
1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over
Score 3:3