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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. A

30 May 2026 13:00 UTC

RACING vs DEFENSOR SPORTING

Final 0:0

Draw

Model predictions were

39%

1X2

Racing

Result: Draw

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

14%

Score

2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 74 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 292 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 241 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)

Both teams to score 52% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 51% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 58 past matches

1X2 29% (Weak)

Both teams to score 50% (Average)

Total 1.5 53% (Average)

Total 2.5 53% (Average)

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

Total 4.5 95% (Strong)

Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)

172 predictions

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

104 predictions

Total 1.5 67% (Strong)

149 predictions

Total 2.5 43% (Weak)

88 predictions

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

217 predictions

Total 4.5 93% (Strong)

236 predictions

Match overview

Post-match review for Racing vs Defensor Sporting. The match ended 0-0 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. A. The model leaned toward Racing with a weak indicator (39.3%).

The final result did not match the primary prediction. Market-level signals were less accurate than expected in this specific match profile. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) was identified as a clear statistical edge and did not match the outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (44.6%) did not land, both teams to score (48.2%) did not land. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 91.3% of matches across a sample of 241 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 50% in a sample of 58 team involvements.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.

RACING vs DEFENSOR SPORTING

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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