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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. A

24 May 2026 21:30 UTC

DEFENSOR SPORTING vs CLUB ATLETICO PENAROL

Final 0:2

Club Atletico Penarol won Last goal: Club Atletico Penarol

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Matías Arezo — Club Atletico Penarol
  2. ⚽ Diego Laxalt — Club Atletico Penarol

Model predictions were

As expected
39%
1X2
Defensor Sporting
Result: Club Atletico Penarol
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
14%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 59% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 17 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 288 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 237 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 59 past matches

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 42% (Weak)
Total 1.5 46% (Average)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 75% (Strong)
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)
169 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
133 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
147 predictions
Total 2.5 44% (Weak)
87 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
213 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
232 predictions

Match overview

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Over/Under
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Score 0:0