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Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion Promotion Playoff

06 Jun 2026 16:30 UTC

ATLETICO MADRILENO vs PONFERRADINA

Final 0:1

Ponferradina won Last goal: Ponferradina

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Abdoulaye Keita — Ponferradina

Model predictions were

40%

1X2

Draw

Result: Ponferradina

47%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under

55%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 227 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 774 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 750 completed matches.

1X2 30% (Weak)

Both teams to score 46% (Average)

Total 1.5 56% (Good)

Total 2.5 49% (Average)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 85% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 64 past matches

1X2 25% (Weak)

Both teams to score 39% (Weak)

Total 1.5 52% (Average)

Total 2.5 42% (Weak)

Total 3.5 61% (Good)

Total 4.5 80% (Strong)

Score 5% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 30% (Weak)

227 predictions

Both teams to score 42% (Weak)

386 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

515 predictions

Total 2.5 57% (Good)

453 predictions

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

621 predictions

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

697 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Atletico Madrileno vs Ponferradina after full time. The match ended 0-1 in Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion Promotion Playoff. The model leaned toward Draw with a marginal edge (40.2%).

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. Market-level signals were partially accurate across the main goal-related markets. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) appeared as a clear statistical edge and did not match the outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (55%) came in as a low-confidence signal and was correctly identified, both teams to score (46.5%) did not land. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 85.2% of matches across a sample of 750 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 39.1% in a sample of 64 team involvements.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.

ATLETICO MADRILENO vs PONFERRADINA

Match timeline

1st half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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