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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

31 Mar 2026 14:00 UTC

CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO vs LIVERPOOL FC

Final 3:3

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Rubén Bentancourt — Liverpool FC
  2. ⚽ Federico Martínez — Liverpool FC
  3. ⚽ Matteo Copelotti — Club Atletico Progreso
  4. ⚽ Matteo Copelotti — Club Atletico Progreso

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Federico Martínez — Liverpool FC
  2. ⚽ Hernan Carroso — Club Atletico Progreso

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Liverpool FC
Result: Draw
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
9%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 32% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 34 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 235 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 187 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 52% (Average)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 46 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)
128 predictions
Both teams to score 61% (Good)
104 predictions
Total 1.5 36% (Weak)
75 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
122 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
167 predictions
Total 4.5 95% (Strong)
183 predictions

Match overview

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