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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

04 Apr 2026 22:00 UTC

CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO vs CLUB ATLETICO PENAROL

Final 0:2

Club Atletico Penarol won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Luis Angulo — Club Atletico Penarol
  2. ⚽ Luis Angulo — Club Atletico Penarol

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
Result: Club Atletico Penarol
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Solid call
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
8%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 20% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 59 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 240 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 191 completed matches.

1X2 20% (Weak)
Both teams to score 53% (Average)
Total 1.5 51% (Average)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 49 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 49% (Average)
Total 1.5 45% (Weak)
Total 2.5 41% (Weak)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 20% (Weak)
59 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Average)
84 predictions
Total 1.5 63% (Good)
113 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
125 predictions
Total 3.5 78% (Strong)
171 predictions
Total 4.5 94% (Strong)
187 predictions

Match overview

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