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05 Apr 2026 14:00 UTC

STROEMSGODSET vs STABAEK

Final 2:1

Stroemsgodset won

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Jacob Hanstad — Stabaek
⚽ Lars Vilsvik — Stroemsgodset
⚽ Sebastian Pingel — Stroemsgodset

Model predictions were

39%

1X2

Stabaek

Result: Stroemsgodset

62%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

88%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

65%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

67%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

81%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

18%

Score

1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 21 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 180 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 135 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)

Both teams to score 60% (Good)

Total 1.5 84% (Strong)

Total 2.5 59% (Good)

Total 3.5 59% (Good)

Total 4.5 67% (Strong)

Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 17 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 35% (Weak)

Both teams to score 59% (Good)

Total 1.5 94% (Strong)

Total 2.5 71% (Strong)

Total 3.5 76% (Strong)

Total 4.5 71% (Strong)

Score 18% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)

110 predictions

Both teams to score 66% (Strong)

91 predictions

Total 1.5 92% (Strong)

119 predictions

Total 2.5 67% (Strong)

94 predictions

Total 3.5 69% (Strong)

77 predictions

Total 4.5 82% (Strong)

97 predictions

Match overview

Match result and prediction analysis for Stroemsgodset vs Stabaek. The match ended 2-1 in Norway · 1. Division. Pre-match projections pointed to Stabaek with a marginal edge at 39.3%.

The main outcome missed, but several market signals were accurate. Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (88.2%) appeared as a strong signal and held up in the final outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (65%) was correctly identified, both teams to score (62.3%) held up in the final outcome. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 67.4% of matches across a sample of 135 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 58.8% in a sample of 17 team involvements.

Even when the main prediction misses, underlying data can still highlight key match patterns. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.