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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

18 Apr 2026 16:00 UTC

CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO vs MONTEVIDEO WANDERERS

Final 2:1

Club Atletico Progreso won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Nahuel Lopez — Club Atletico Progreso

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jonás Luna — Montevideo Wanderers
  2. ⚽ Diego Sanchez — Club Atletico Progreso

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Montevideo Wanderers
Result: Club Atletico Progreso
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
6%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 17% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 6 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 254 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 204 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 50 past matches

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 46% (Average)
Total 2.5 42% (Weak)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)
140 predictions
Both teams to score 59% (Good)
111 predictions
Total 1.5 65% (Good)
124 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
131 predictions
Total 3.5 78% (Strong)
181 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
199 predictions

Match overview

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