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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

18 Apr 2026 19:00 UTC

RACING vs DEFENSOR SPORTING

Final 1:1 Almanac Moment

Draw

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Tomas Habib — Racing

2nd half

⚽ Brian Montenegro — Defensor Sporting
🟥 Lucas de los Santos — Defensor Sporting

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Draw

Result: Draw

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

65%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

51%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

12%

Score

1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 20% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 64 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 254 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 204 completed matches.

1X2 20% (Weak)

Both teams to score 52% (Average)

Total 1.5 53% (Average)

Total 2.5 49% (Average)

Total 3.5 72% (Strong)

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 50 past matches

1X2 28% (Weak)

Both teams to score 50% (Average)

Total 1.5 52% (Average)

Total 2.5 56% (Good)

Total 3.5 76% (Strong)

Total 4.5 94% (Strong)

Score 12% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 20% (Weak)

64 predictions

Both teams to score 45% (Average)

93 predictions

Total 1.5 65% (Good)

124 predictions

Total 2.5 54% (Average)

131 predictions

Total 3.5 78% (Strong)

181 predictions

Total 4.5 93% (Strong)

199 predictions

Match overview

Final result breakdown for Racing vs Defensor Sporting. The match ended 1-1 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura. The model favored Draw with a weak indicator (36.8%).

The outcome aligned with the model’s expectation. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 91.7% of matches across a sample of 204 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 50% in a sample of 50 team involvements.

Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (64.8%) came in as a fairly even projection and was confirmed by the match. Over 2.5 goals (51.4%) aligned with the result, both teams to score (48.2%) held up in the final outcome.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

RACING vs DEFENSOR SPORTING

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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