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Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion - Group 1

23 May 2026 16:30 UTC

LUGO vs CD ARENTEIRO

Final 0:0

Draw

Model predictions were

40%

1X2

CD Arenteiro

Result: Draw

48%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No

30%

Total 1.5

Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under

55%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

76%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

11%

Score

0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 127 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 750 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 726 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)

Both teams to score 46% (Average)

Total 1.5 56% (Good)

Total 2.5 49% (Average)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 85% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 71 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)

Both teams to score 45% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 59% (Good)

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 36% (Weak)

505 predictions

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

352 predictions

Total 1.5 34% (Weak)

225 predictions

Total 2.5 57% (Good)

441 predictions

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

602 predictions

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

675 predictions

Match overview

Final result breakdown for Lugo vs CD Arenteiro. The match ended 0-0 in Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion - Group 1. The model leaned toward CD Arenteiro with a weak indicator (40.2%).

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (29.7%) came in as a low-confidence signal and held up in the final outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (55%) was correctly identified, both teams to score (48.2%) held up in the final outcome. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 85.3% of matches across a sample of 726 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 45.1% in a sample of 71 team involvements.

The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

LUGO vs CD ARENTEIRO

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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