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Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion - Group 1

23 May 2026 16:30 UTC

OSASUNA B vs MERIDA

Final 1:2

Merida won Last goal: Merida

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Sigurdur Bjartur Hallsson — Merida
  2. ⚽ Asier Bonel — Osasuna B

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Sigurdur Bjartur Hallsson — Merida
  2. 🟥 Javi Areso (straight red) — Merida

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Osasuna B
Result: Merida
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 40% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 199 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 750 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 726 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 85% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 70 past matches

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 50% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 83% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 36% (Weak)
505 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
352 predictions
Total 1.5 34% (Weak)
225 predictions
Total 2.5 57% (Good)
441 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
602 predictions
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
675 predictions

Match overview

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