← Back to matches

Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff

27 May 2026 19:00 UTC

CATANIA vs ASCOLI CALCIO 1898 FC

Final 2:1

Catania won Last goal: Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Salvatore Caturano — Catania
⚽ Francesco Forte — Catania

2nd half

⚽ Enrico Oviszach — Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC

Model predictions were

40%

1X2

Draw

Result: Catania

54%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

55%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 346 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,145 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1127 completed matches.

1X2 29% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 59% (Good)

Total 2.5 53% (Average)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 87% (Strong)

Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 78 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 47% (Average)

Total 1.5 63% (Good)

Total 2.5 58% (Good)

Total 3.5 62% (Good)

Total 4.5 85% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 29% (Weak)

346 predictions

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

587 predictions

Total 1.5 70% (Strong)

803 predictions

Total 2.5 59% (Good)

699 predictions

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

949 predictions

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

1057 predictions

Match overview

Match result and prediction analysis for Catania vs Ascoli Calcio 1898 FC. The match ended 2-1 in Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff. The model favored Draw with a weak indicator (40.2%).

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. Market-level signals were partially accurate across the main goal-related markets. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) appeared as a clear statistical edge and aligned with the result.

Over 2.5 goals (55%) did not match the outcome, both teams to score (53.6%) held up in the final outcome. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common. With over 4.5 goals appearing in 87.3% of matches across a sample of 1,127 games.

Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 47.4% in a sample of 78 team involvements. The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

CATANIA vs ASCOLI CALCIO 1898 FC

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

Related matches