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31 May 2026 18:30 UTC

ESTUDIANTES vs ROSARIO CENTRAL

Final 3:0

Estudiantes won Last goal: Estudiantes

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Guido Carrillo — Estudiantes
⚽ Tiago Palacios (penalty) — Estudiantes

2nd half

🟥 Franco Ibarra (2nd yellow) — Rosario Central
⚽ Mikel Amondarain — Estudiantes

Model predictions were

51%

1X2

Estudiantes

Result: Estudiantes

44%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

74%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

33%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

86%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 64% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 23% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 64 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 54 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)

Both teams to score 54% (Average)

Total 1.5 48% (Average)

Total 2.5 37% (Weak)

Total 3.5 76% (Strong)

Total 4.5 87% (Strong)

Score 7% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 2 past matches

Small sample sizes may be less reliable.

1X2 50% (Average)

Both teams to score 100% (Strong)

Total 1.5 50% (Average)

Total 2.5 0% (Weak)

Total 3.5 50% (Average)

Total 4.5 100% (Strong)

Score 0% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)

39 predictions

Both teams to score 37% (Weak)

19 predictions

Total 1.5 71% (Strong)

28 predictions

Total 2.5 21% (Weak)

14 predictions

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

50 predictions

Total 4.5 89% (Strong)

53 predictions

Match overview

Post-match review for Estudiantes vs Rosario Central. The match ended 3-0 in Argentina · Cup. The model leaned toward Estudiantes with a weak indicator (50.8%).

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. Market-level signals were partially accurate across the main goal-related markets. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (74.4%) came in as a clear statistical edge and was correctly identified.

Over 2.5 goals (33.3%) came in as a weak indicator and held up in the final outcome. Both teams to score (44.3%) did not land. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 87% of matches across a sample of 54 games.

Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 100% in a sample of 2 team involvements. Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.