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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

12 Apr 2026 18:30 UTC

JUVENTUD DE LAS PIEDRAS vs CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO

Final 1:0

Juventud de las Piedras won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Fernando Mimbacas — Juventud de las Piedras

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
Result: Juventud de las Piedras
As expected
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No
Off target
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 21% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 62 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 249 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 200 completed matches.

1X2 21% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 48 past matches

1X2 35% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 46% (Average)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 21% (Weak)
62 predictions
Both teams to score 46% (Average)
91 predictions
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
120 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
129 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
178 predictions
Total 4.5 94% (Strong)
196 predictions

Match overview

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