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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

12 Apr 2026 21:30 UTC

MONTEVIDEO WANDERERS vs RACING

Final 1:2

Racing won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Gonzalo Freitas — Montevideo Wanderers

2nd half

  1. 🟥 Darlin Mencía — Montevideo Wanderers
  2. ⚽ Tomas Habib — Racing
  3. ⚽ Nicolás Sosa — Racing

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Montevideo Wanderers
Result: Racing
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 37% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 19 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 249 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 200 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 53% (Average)
Total 2.5 49% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 47 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
Total 1.5 51% (Average)
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
Total 3.5 72% (Strong)
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
Score 2% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)
138 predictions
Both teams to score 60% (Good)
109 predictions
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
120 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
129 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
178 predictions
Total 4.5 94% (Strong)
196 predictions

Match overview

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