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26 Apr 2026 15:00 UTC

STABAEK vs FK HAUGESUND

Final 3:2

Stabaek won Last goal: Stabaek

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Magnus Lankhof-Dahlby — Stabaek
⚽ Sory Diarra — FK Haugesund

2nd half

⚽ Sebastian Olderheim — Stabaek
⚽ Aleksa Matic — Stabaek
⚽ Parfait Bizoza — FK Haugesund

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Stabaek

Result: Stabaek

54%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes

28%

Total 1.5

Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over

37%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over

65%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over

77%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over

13%

Score

1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 28% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 32 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 205 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 160 completed matches.

1X2 46% (Average)

Both teams to score 60% (Good)

Total 1.5 83% (Strong)

Total 2.5 56% (Good)

Total 3.5 54% (Average)

Total 4.5 64% (Good)

Score 6% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 23 past matches

1X2 30% (Weak)

Both teams to score 61% (Good)

Total 1.5 91% (Strong)

Total 2.5 65% (Strong)

Total 3.5 65% (Strong)

Total 4.5 61% (Good)

Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 46% (Average)

128 predictions

Both teams to score 49% (Average)

55 predictions

Total 1.5 24% (Weak)

21 predictions

Total 2.5 32% (Weak)

50 predictions

Total 3.5 63% (Good)

92 predictions

Total 4.5 80% (Strong)

115 predictions

Match overview

Final result breakdown for Stabaek vs FK Haugesund. The match ended 3-2 in Norway · 1. Division. The model favored Stabaek with a marginal edge (36.6%).

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. Market-level signals were less accurate than expected in this specific match profile. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (27.6%) was identified as a marginal edge and fell short of the result.

Over 2.5 goals (37.2%) was not confirmed, both teams to score (53.6%) was not confirmed. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 64.4% of matches across a sample of 160 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 60.9% in a sample of 23 team involvements.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.

STABAEK vs FK HAUGESUND

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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