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09 May 2026 18:30 UTC

BENEVENTO vs S.S. AREZZO

Final 1:0 Almanac Moment

Benevento won Last goal: Benevento

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Francesco Paolo Salvemini (penalty) — Benevento

Model predictions were

39%

1X2

Benevento

Result: Benevento

54%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No

30%

Total 1.5

Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under

55%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 43% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 299 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,121 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1103 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 59% (Good)

Total 2.5 53% (Average)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 87% (Strong)

Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 72 past matches

1X2 42% (Weak)

Both teams to score 56% (Good)

Total 1.5 58% (Good)

Total 2.5 51% (Average)

Total 3.5 69% (Strong)

Total 4.5 86% (Strong)

Score 8% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)

763 predictions

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

523 predictions

Total 1.5 33% (Weak)

312 predictions

Total 2.5 59% (Good)

680 predictions

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

926 predictions

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

1033 predictions

Match overview

Final result breakdown for Benevento vs S.S. Arezzo. The match ended 1-0 in Italy · Serie C · Serie C Super Cup. The model favored Benevento with a marginal edge (39.3%).

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. Across settled lines, market signals aligned strongly with the final outcome. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (29.7%) was identified as a weak indicator and held up in the final outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (55%) was correctly identified, both teams to score (53.6%) was correctly identified. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common. With over 4.5 goals appearing in 87.3% of matches across a sample of 1,103 games.

Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 55.6% in a sample of 72 team involvements. Even when the main prediction misses, underlying data can still highlight key match patterns. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

BENEVENTO vs S.S. AREZZO

Match timeline

1st half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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