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Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff

10 May 2026 19:00 UTC

CASERTANA vs SALERNITANA

Final 2:3

Salernitana won Last goal: Casertana

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Facundo Lescano — Salernitana
  2. ⚽ Franco Ferrari — Salernitana

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Andrea Ferraris — Salernitana
  2. ⚽ Federico Proia — Casertana
  3. ⚽ Karlo Butic — Casertana
  4. 🟥 Accursio Bentivegna (straight red) — Casertana

Model predictions were

As expected
39%
1X2
Casertana
Result: Salernitana
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
14%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 44% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 146 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,123 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1105 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 71 past matches

1X2 41% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 66% (Strong)
Total 4.5 82% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
765 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
525 predictions
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
791 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
682 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
928 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
1035 predictions

Match overview

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