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Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff

13 May 2026 18:00 UTC

RENATE vs CASARANO

Final 0:3

Casarano won Last goal: Casarano

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Salvatore Cerbone — Casarano
⚽ Riccardo Ori (own goal) — Casarano

2nd half

⚽ Francesco Grandolfo — Casarano
🟥 Leandro Versienti (straight red) — Casarano

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Casarano

Result: Casarano

54%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

48%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

14%

Score

1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 172 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,128 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1110 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 59% (Good)

Total 2.5 53% (Average)

Total 3.5 70% (Strong)

Total 4.5 87% (Strong)

Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 78 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)

Both teams to score 54% (Average)

Total 1.5 65% (Strong)

Total 2.5 59% (Good)

Total 3.5 78% (Strong)

Total 4.5 88% (Strong)

Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)

770 predictions

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

583 predictions

Total 1.5 70% (Strong)

796 predictions

Total 2.5 44% (Weak)

426 predictions

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

932 predictions

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

1040 predictions

Match overview

Post-match review for Renate vs Casarano. The match ended 0-3 in Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff. The model favored Casarano with a marginal edge (36.6%).

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common. With over 4.5 goals appearing in 87.3% of matches across a sample of 1,110 games.

Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 53.9% in a sample of 78 team involvements. Several market indicators held up, while others were not confirmed by the match result. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) appeared as a strong signal and aligned with the result.

Over 2.5 goals (48%) was identified as a low-confidence signal and was confirmed by the match. Both teams to score (53.6%) did not land. Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match.

This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.