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Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff

13 May 2026 18:45 UTC

SALERNITANA vs CASERTANA

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Salernitana

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Jonas Heinz — Casertana
  2. ⚽ Ismail Achik — Salernitana

Model predictions were

Solid call
40%
1X2
Draw
Result: Draw
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
30%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
14%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 29% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 340 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,128 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1110 completed matches.

1X2 29% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 72 past matches

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 60% (Good)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 65% (Strong)
Total 4.5 81% (Strong)
Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 29% (Weak)
340 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
527 predictions
Total 1.5 33% (Weak)
314 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
684 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
932 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
1040 predictions

Match overview

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