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Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion - Group 1

23 May 2026 16:30 UTC

BARAKALDO vs CELTA FORTUNA

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Barakaldo

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Bernard Somuah — Celta Fortuna
⚽ Saliou Mandiang — Barakaldo

Model predictions were

40%

1X2

Draw

Result: Draw

47%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

37%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under

31%

Total 3.5

Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

10%

Score

2:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 221 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 750 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 726 completed matches.

1X2 30% (Weak)

Both teams to score 46% (Average)

Total 1.5 56% (Good)

Total 2.5 49% (Average)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 85% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 70 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)

Both teams to score 47% (Average)

Total 1.5 63% (Good)

Total 2.5 43% (Weak)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 79% (Strong)

Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 30% (Weak)

221 predictions

Both teams to score 42% (Weak)

374 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

501 predictions

Total 2.5 38% (Weak)

285 predictions

Total 3.5 27% (Weak)

124 predictions

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

675 predictions

Match overview

Match result and prediction analysis for Barakaldo vs Celta Fortuna. The match ended 1-1 in Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion - Group 1. Pre-match projections pointed to Draw with a weak indicator at 40.2%.

The outcome aligned with the model’s expectation. Market-level signals were partially accurate across the main goal-related markets. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) was identified as a clear statistical edge and was confirmed by the match.

Over 2.5 goals (37.2%) was identified as a low-confidence signal and did not land. Both teams to score (46.5%) aligned with the result. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 85.3% of matches across a sample of 726 games.

Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 47.1% in a sample of 70 team involvements. Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.

BARAKALDO vs CELTA FORTUNA

Match timeline

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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