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Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion - Group 1

23 May 2026 16:30 UTC

OURENSE vs TENERIFE

Final 2:1

Ourense won Last goal: Ourense

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Enric Gallego — Tenerife

2nd half

⚽ Martin Ochoa — Ourense
⚽ Antal Yaakobishvili (own goal) — Ourense

Model predictions were

40%

1X2

Tenerife

Result: Ourense

47%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

37%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

19%

Score

1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 25% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 127 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 750 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 726 completed matches.

1X2 36% (Weak)

Both teams to score 46% (Average)

Total 1.5 56% (Good)

Total 2.5 49% (Average)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 85% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 70 past matches

1X2 47% (Average)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 64% (Good)

Total 2.5 54% (Average)

Total 3.5 69% (Strong)

Total 4.5 84% (Strong)

Score 19% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 36% (Weak)

505 predictions

Both teams to score 42% (Weak)

374 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

501 predictions

Total 2.5 38% (Weak)

285 predictions

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

602 predictions

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

675 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Ourense vs Tenerife after full time. The match ended 2-1 in Spain · Primera Division RFEF · Primera Federacion - Group 1. Pre-match projections pointed to Tenerife with a weak indicator at 40.2%.

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) appeared as a clear statistical edge and aligned with the result.

Over 2.5 goals (37.2%) was confirmed by the match, both teams to score (46.5%) held up in the final outcome. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 85.3% of matches across a sample of 726 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 51.4% in a sample of 70 team involvements.

Even when the main prediction misses, underlying data can still highlight key match patterns. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.