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31 May 2026 16:30 UTC

CASTELLON vs EIBAR

Final 2:1

Castellon won Last goal: Castellon

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Alex Calatrava — Castellon

2nd half

⚽ José Corpas — Eibar
⚽ Israel Suero — Castellon

Model predictions were

39%

1X2

Castellon

Result: Castellon

48%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes

30%

Total 1.5

Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over

55%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over

71%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

86%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

13%

Score

1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 42% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 111 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 458 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 444 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)

Both teams to score 52% (Average)

Total 1.5 61% (Good)

Total 2.5 55% (Average)

Total 3.5 64% (Good)

Total 4.5 79% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 79 past matches

1X2 38% (Weak)

Both teams to score 49% (Average)

Total 1.5 58% (Good)

Total 2.5 59% (Good)

Total 3.5 65% (Good)

Total 4.5 81% (Strong)

Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)

326 predictions

Both teams to score 46% (Average)

192 predictions

Total 1.5 33% (Weak)

123 predictions

Total 2.5 55% (Average)

244 predictions

Total 3.5 74% (Strong)

345 predictions

Total 4.5 86% (Strong)

405 predictions

Match overview

Final result breakdown for Castellon vs Eibar. The match ended 2-1 in Spain · Segunda División · LaLiga2. The model favored Castellon with a marginal edge (39.3%).

The outcome aligned with the model’s expectation. Market-level signals were less accurate than expected in this specific match profile. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (29.7%) was identified as a low-confidence signal and did not match the outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (55%) did not land, both teams to score (48.2%) did not match the outcome. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 79.1% of matches across a sample of 444 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 49.4% in a sample of 79 team involvements.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.

CASTELLON vs EIBAR

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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