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31 May 2026 16:30 UTC

ALMERIA vs REAL VALLADOLID

Final 1:0

Almeria won Last goal: Almeria

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Sergio Arribas (penalty) — Almeria

Model predictions were

40%

1X2

Real Valladolid

Result: Almeria

48%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No

30%

Total 1.5

Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under

51%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

71%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

86%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 26% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 84 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 25% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 458 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 444 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)

Both teams to score 52% (Average)

Total 1.5 61% (Good)

Total 2.5 55% (Average)

Total 3.5 64% (Good)

Total 4.5 79% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 80 past matches

1X2 30% (Weak)

Both teams to score 50% (Average)

Total 1.5 65% (Strong)

Total 2.5 54% (Average)

Total 3.5 58% (Good)

Total 4.5 71% (Strong)

Score 6% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)

326 predictions

Both teams to score 46% (Average)

192 predictions

Total 1.5 33% (Weak)

123 predictions

Total 2.5 55% (Average)

244 predictions

Total 3.5 74% (Strong)

345 predictions

Total 4.5 86% (Strong)

405 predictions

Match overview

Match result and prediction analysis for Almeria vs Real Valladolid. The match ended 1-0 in Spain · Segunda División · LaLiga2. The model leaned toward Real Valladolid with a weak indicator (40.2%).

The main outcome missed, but several market signals were accurate. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 79.1% of matches across a sample of 444 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 50% in a sample of 80 team involvements.

Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (29.7%) was identified as a marginal edge and aligned with the result. Over 2.5 goals (51.4%) appeared as a low-confidence signal and was confirmed by the match.

Both teams to score (48.2%) aligned with the result. The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.

ALMERIA vs REAL VALLADOLID

Match timeline

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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