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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

20 Mar 2026 21:00 UTC

CERRO LARGO vs DEPORTIVO MALDONADO

Final 3:1

Cerro Largo won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Maximiliano Noble — Deportivo Maldonado

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Axel Pandiani — Cerro Largo
  2. ⚽ Tiziano Correa — Cerro Largo
  3. ⚽ Diego Daguerre — Cerro Largo

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
Result: Cerro Largo
Off target
62%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
56%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
92%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
12%
Score
0:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 22% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 54 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 214 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 167 completed matches.

1X2 22% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 26 past matches

1X2 15% (Weak)
Both teams to score 69% (Strong)
Total 1.5 77% (Strong)
Total 2.5 69% (Strong)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 96% (Strong)
Score 12% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 22% (Weak)
54 predictions
Both teams to score 63% (Good)
93 predictions
Total 1.5 40% (Weak)
67 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
110 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
151 predictions
Total 4.5 95% (Strong)
163 predictions

Match overview

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