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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

22 Mar 2026 19:00 UTC

CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO vs BOSTON RIVER

Final 0:1

Boston River won

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Fredy Martínez — Boston River

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Draw

Result: Boston River

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

65%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under

55%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

92%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 21% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 58 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 220 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 173 completed matches.

1X2 21% (Weak)

Both teams to score 54% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 51% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 94% (Strong)

Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 41 past matches

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 49% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 49% (Average)

Total 3.5 68% (Strong)

Total 4.5 93% (Strong)

Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 21% (Weak)

58 predictions

Both teams to score 45% (Average)

77 predictions

Total 1.5 64% (Good)

103 predictions

Total 2.5 57% (Good)

115 predictions

Total 3.5 78% (Strong)

157 predictions

Total 4.5 95% (Strong)

169 predictions

Match overview

Match result and prediction analysis for Club Atletico Progreso vs Boston River. The match ended 0-1 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura. The model leaned toward Draw with a marginal edge (36.8%).

The main outcome missed, but several market signals were accurate. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 93.6% of matches across a sample of 173 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 48.8% in a sample of 41 team involvements.

Several market indicators held up, while others were not confirmed by the match result. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (64.8%) appeared as a fairly even projection and did not match the outcome. Over 2.5 goals (55%) was identified as a weak indicator and was confirmed by the match.

Both teams to score (48.2%) did not match the outcome. Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.

CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO vs BOSTON RIVER

Match timeline

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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