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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

21 Mar 2026 00:30 UTC

DEFENSOR SPORTING vs NACIONAL

Final 2:1

Defensor Sporting won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. Luciano Boggio — Nacional
  2. Alexander Machado — Defensor Sporting

2nd half

  1. Brian Montenegro — Defensor Sporting

Model predictions were

As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
As expected
48%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Nice call
54%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
54%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Big miss
29%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 34% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 53 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 215 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

No stats available

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

No stats available

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

No stats available

Match overview