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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

21 Mar 2026 22:30 UTC

CLUB ATLETICO PENAROL vs CERRO

Final 3:1

Club Atletico Penarol won

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Matías Arezo — Club Atletico Penarol
  2. ⚽ Luis Angulo — Club Atletico Penarol
  3. 🟥 Agustin Miranda — Cerro
  4. 🟥 Maximiliano Olivera — Club Atletico Penarol
  5. ⚽ Cristian Barros — Cerro

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nicolás Fernández — Club Atletico Penarol

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Draw
Result: Club Atletico Penarol
Nice call
48%
Both teams to score
Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes
Solid call
65%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
On point
92%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
1:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 22% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (0; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 55 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 215 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 168 completed matches.

1X2 22% (Weak)
Both teams to score 55% (Average)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
Score 8% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 42 past matches

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 48% (Average)
Total 1.5 45% (Average)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 22% (Weak)
55 predictions
Both teams to score 45% (Weak)
74 predictions
Total 1.5 64% (Good)
100 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
111 predictions
Total 3.5 78% (Strong)
152 predictions
Total 4.5 95% (Strong)
164 predictions

Match overview

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