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Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff

03 May 2026 18:00 UTC

TRENTO vs GIANA ERMINIO

Final 1:2 Almanac Moment

Giana Erminio won Last goal: Trento

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Vincenzo Vitale — Giana Erminio

2nd half

⚽ Luigi Samele — Giana Erminio
⚽ Federico Chinetti — Trento

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Giana Erminio

Result: Giana Erminio

54%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

14%

Score

1:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 30% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 170 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,106 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1094 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 59% (Good)

Total 2.5 53% (Average)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 87% (Strong)

Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 73 past matches

1X2 41% (Weak)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 70% (Strong)

Total 2.5 47% (Average)

Total 3.5 68% (Strong)

Total 4.5 88% (Strong)

Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)

754 predictions

Both teams to score 50% (Average)

577 predictions

Total 1.5 69% (Strong)

782 predictions

Total 2.5 44% (Weak)

418 predictions

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

919 predictions

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

1025 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Trento vs Giana Erminio after full time. The match ended 1-2 in Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff. Pre-match projections pointed to Giana Erminio with a weak indicator at 36.6%.

The outcome aligned with the model’s expectation. Across settled lines, market signals aligned strongly with the final outcome. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) was identified as a clear statistical edge and was confirmed by the match.

Over 2.5 goals (44.6%) aligned with the result, both teams to score (53.6%) was correctly identified. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common. With over 4.5 goals appearing in 87.3% of matches across a sample of 1,094 games.

Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 48% in a sample of 73 team involvements. Even when the main prediction misses, underlying data can still highlight key match patterns. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.