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Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff

03 May 2026 18:00 UTC

PIANESE vs TERNANA

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Ternana

Match timeline

1st half

  1. 🟥 Christian Sussi (straight red) — Pianese

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Lorenzo Coccia — Pianese
  2. ⚽ Stefano Pettinari (penalty) — Ternana

Model predictions were

As expected
39%
1X2
Pianese
Result: Draw
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
7%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 45% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 143 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,106 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1094 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 59% (Good)
Total 2.5 53% (Average)
Total 3.5 71% (Strong)
Total 4.5 87% (Strong)
Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 69 past matches

1X2 36% (Weak)
Both teams to score 58% (Good)
Total 1.5 57% (Good)
Total 2.5 64% (Good)
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
Total 4.5 88% (Strong)
Score 7% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)
754 predictions
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
517 predictions
Total 1.5 69% (Strong)
782 predictions
Total 2.5 59% (Good)
676 predictions
Total 3.5 80% (Strong)
919 predictions
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
1025 predictions

Match overview

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