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Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff

03 May 2026 18:00 UTC

PINETO vs GUBBIO

Final 2:1

Pineto won Last goal: Pineto

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Andrea La Mantia — Gubbio

2nd half

⚽ Filippo D'Andrea — Pineto
⚽ Luca Schirone — Pineto

Model predictions were

45%

1X2

Pineto

Result: Pineto

54%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

48%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

14%

Score

3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 56% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 36 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 30% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 1,106 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 1094 completed matches.

1X2 40% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 59% (Good)

Total 2.5 53% (Average)

Total 3.5 71% (Strong)

Total 4.5 87% (Strong)

Score 11% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 71 past matches

1X2 31% (Weak)

Both teams to score 61% (Good)

Total 1.5 55% (Average)

Total 2.5 63% (Good)

Total 3.5 82% (Strong)

Total 4.5 89% (Strong)

Score 14% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 40% (Weak)

754 predictions

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

517 predictions

Total 1.5 69% (Strong)

782 predictions

Total 2.5 44% (Weak)

418 predictions

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

919 predictions

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

1025 predictions

Match overview

Post-match review for Pineto vs Gubbio. The match ended 2-1 in Italy · Serie C · Serie C Promotion Playoff. The model leaned toward Pineto with a marginal edge (45.3%).

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common. With over 4.5 goals appearing in 87.3% of matches across a sample of 1,094 games.

Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 60.6% in a sample of 71 team involvements. Several market indicators held up, while others were not confirmed by the match result. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) appeared as a clear statistical edge and held up in the final outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (48%) was correctly identified, both teams to score (53.6%) did not land. The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.