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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. B

15 May 2026 23:00 UTC

MONTEVIDEO CITY TORQUE vs NACIONAL

Final 1:2

Nacional won Last goal: Nacional

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Ramiro Lecchini — Montevideo City Torque

2nd half

⚽ Camilo Cándido — Nacional
⚽ Maximiliano Silvera — Nacional

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Montevideo City Torque

Result: Nacional

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

28%

Total 3.5

Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Under

28%

Total 4.5

Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Under

11%

Score

3:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 68 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 278 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 228 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 55% (Average)

Total 2.5 50% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 56 past matches

1X2 39% (Weak)

Both teams to score 57% (Good)

Total 1.5 63% (Good)

Total 2.5 48% (Average)

Total 3.5 63% (Good)

Total 4.5 89% (Strong)

Score 11% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)

160 predictions

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

101 predictions

Total 1.5 67% (Strong)

142 predictions

Total 2.5 43% (Weak)

84 predictions

Total 3.5 21% (Weak)

24 predictions

Total 4.5 20% (Weak)

5 predictions

Match overview

Final result breakdown for Montevideo City Torque vs Nacional. The match ended 1-2 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. B. The model favored Montevideo City Torque with a low-confidence projection (36.6%).

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 91.2% of matches across a sample of 228 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 57.1% in a sample of 56 team involvements.

Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) appeared as a high-confidence indicator and was confirmed by the match. Over 2.5 goals (44.6%) aligned with the result, both teams to score (48.2%) held up in the final outcome.

Even when the main prediction misses, underlying data can still highlight key match patterns. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.

MONTEVIDEO CITY TORQUE vs NACIONAL

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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