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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. A

17 May 2026 13:00 UTC

CENTRAL ESPANOL vs DEFENSOR SPORTING

Final 2:1 Almanac Moment

Central Espanol won Last goal: Central Espanol

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Nicolás Wunsch (penalty) — Defensor Sporting
⚽ Franco Munoz — Central Espanol

2nd half

⚽ Isaac Mendez — Central Espanol
🟥 Nacho Rodríguez (2nd yellow) — Central Espanol

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Central Espanol

Result: Central Espanol

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

18%

Score

2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 39% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 69 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 282 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 231 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 55% (Average)

Total 2.5 50% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 40 past matches

1X2 30% (Weak)

Both teams to score 48% (Average)

Total 1.5 50% (Average)

Total 2.5 63% (Good)

Total 3.5 80% (Strong)

Total 4.5 93% (Strong)

Score 18% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)

163 predictions

Both teams to score 47% (Average)

102 predictions

Total 1.5 67% (Strong)

143 predictions

Total 2.5 42% (Weak)

85 predictions

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

207 predictions

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

226 predictions

Match overview

Post-match review for Central Espanol vs Defensor Sporting. The match ended 2-1 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. A. The model favored Central Espanol with a low-confidence projection (36.6%).

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) was identified as a clear statistical edge and held up in the final outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (44.6%) appeared as a low-confidence signal and was correctly identified, both teams to score (48.2%) aligned with the result. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 90.9% of matches across a sample of 231 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 47.5% in a sample of 40 team involvements.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.