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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. A

16 May 2026 21:30 UTC

CLUB ATLETICO PENAROL vs LIVERPOOL FC

Final 2:1

Club Atletico Penarol won Last goal: Club Atletico Penarol

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Jesús Trindade — Club Atletico Penarol
  2. ⚽ Federico Martínez — Liverpool FC
  3. 🟥 Maximiliano Olivera (2nd yellow) — Club Atletico Penarol
  4. ⚽ Nicolás Fernández — Club Atletico Penarol

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Liverpool FC
Result: Club Atletico Penarol
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
No surprise
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
5%
Score
0:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 32% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 41 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 279 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 228 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 56 past matches

1X2 32% (Weak)
Both teams to score 43% (Weak)
Total 1.5 61% (Good)
Total 2.5 45% (Weak)
Total 3.5 70% (Strong)
Total 4.5 89% (Strong)
Score 5% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
160 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
127 predictions
Total 1.5 35% (Weak)
86 predictions
Total 2.5 55% (Average)
144 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
204 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
223 predictions

Match overview

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