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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

11 May 2026 23:30 UTC

CERRO LARGO vs CLUB ATLETICO PENAROL

Final 2:3

Club Atletico Penarol won Last goal: Club Atletico Penarol

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Diego Daguerre — Cerro Largo

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Facundo Batista — Club Atletico Penarol
  2. ⚽ Leandro Umpierrez — Club Atletico Penarol
  3. ⚽ Federico Sellecchia — Cerro Largo
  4. ⚽ Abel Hernández — Club Atletico Penarol

Model predictions were

As expected
Underdog
37%
1X2
Cerro Largo
Result: Club Atletico Penarol
As expected
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
As expected
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Off target
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Over
Big miss
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Over
As expected
9%
Score
2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:3

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 24 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 276 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 226 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 55 past matches

1X2 25% (Weak)
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
Total 1.5 58% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 96% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
158 predictions
Both teams to score 55% (Good)
125 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
141 predictions
Total 2.5 56% (Good)
142 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
202 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
221 predictions

Match overview

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