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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. A

17 May 2026 18:00 UTC

RACING vs CERRO LARGO

Final 1:0

Racing won Last goal: Racing

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Sebastian da Silva (penalty) — Racing

2nd half

🟥 Sebastian da Silva (2nd yellow) — Racing

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Racing

Result: Racing

54%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under

51%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 32% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 25 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 282 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 231 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 51% (Average)

Total 1.5 55% (Average)

Total 2.5 50% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 91% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 54 past matches

1X2 22% (Weak)

Both teams to score 59% (Good)

Total 1.5 65% (Good)

Total 2.5 54% (Average)

Total 3.5 74% (Strong)

Total 4.5 94% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)

163 predictions

Both teams to score 53% (Average)

129 predictions

Total 1.5 67% (Strong)

143 predictions

Total 2.5 54% (Average)

146 predictions

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

207 predictions

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

226 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Racing vs Cerro Largo after full time. The match ended 1-0 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. A. The model favored Racing with a weak indicator (36.6%).

The final result matched the model’s primary prediction. Market-level signals were partially accurate across the main goal-related markets. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) appeared as a clear statistical edge and fell short of the result.

Over 2.5 goals (51.4%) aligned with the result, both teams to score (53.6%) held up in the final outcome. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 90.9% of matches across a sample of 231 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 59.3% in a sample of 54 team involvements.

Even when the main prediction misses, underlying data can still highlight key match patterns. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.

RACING vs CERRO LARGO

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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