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16 May 2026 16:30 UTC

MAGALLANES vs DEPORTES RECOLETA

Final 3:2

Magallanes won Last goal: Deportes Recoleta

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ Alessandro Toledo — Magallanes
⚽ Facundo Peraza — Magallanes

2nd half

⚽ Gamalier Guzman — Magallanes
⚽ Pedro Sánchez — Deportes Recoleta
⚽ Federico Martin — Deportes Recoleta

Model predictions were

40%

1X2

Deportes Recoleta

Result: Magallanes

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: Yes

74%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

37%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

37%

Total 3.5

Over

Chance of 4 or more goals

Result: Over

37%

Total 4.5

Over

Chance of 5 or more goals

Result: Over

Score

2:6

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:2

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 0% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-4; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 1 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 29% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 244 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 205 completed matches.

1X2 33% (Weak)

Both teams to score 49% (Average)

Total 1.5 60% (Good)

Total 2.5 45% (Weak)

Total 3.5 59% (Good)

Total 4.5 80% (Strong)

Score 5% (Risky)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 50 past matches

1X2 24% (Weak)

Both teams to score 44% (Weak)

Total 1.5 50% (Average)

Total 2.5 44% (Weak)

Total 3.5 52% (Average)

Total 4.5 68% (Strong)

Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 33% (Weak)

143 predictions

Both teams to score 49% (Average)

106 predictions

Total 1.5 73% (Strong)

147 predictions

Total 2.5 39% (Weak)

92 predictions

Total 3.5 15% (Weak)

46 predictions

Total 4.5 0% (Weak)

16 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Magallanes vs Deportes Recoleta after full time. The match ended 3-2 in Chile · Primera B. The model favored Deportes Recoleta with a weak indicator (40.2%).

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. Market-level signals were consistent and accurate across the settled lines. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (74.4%) was identified as a strong signal and held up in the final outcome.

Over 2.5 goals (37.2%) was identified as a weak indicator and was correctly identified. Both teams to score (48.2%) aligned with the result. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 79.5% of matches across a sample of 205 games.

Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 44% in a sample of 50 team involvements. Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

MAGALLANES vs DEPORTES RECOLETA

Match timeline

1st half

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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