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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Intermedio Grp. B

23 May 2026 21:30 UTC

NACIONAL vs ALBION

Final 1:0

Nacional won Last goal: Nacional

Match timeline

1st half

  1. 🟥 Francisco Ginella (straight red) — Albion

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Maxi Gómez — Nacional
  2. 🟥 Nicolás Lodeiro (straight red) — Nacional

Model predictions were

As expected
37%
1X2
Albion
Result: Nacional
Nice call
54%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Off target
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under
Nice call
51%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
12%
Score
0:2

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 14% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (-2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 7 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 26% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 285 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 234 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)
Both teams to score 51% (Average)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 91% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 42 past matches

1X2 43% (Weak)
Both teams to score 57% (Good)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 48% (Average)
Total 3.5 69% (Strong)
Total 4.5 90% (Strong)
Score 12% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)
166 predictions
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
130 predictions
Total 1.5 67% (Strong)
146 predictions
Total 2.5 54% (Average)
147 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
210 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
229 predictions

Match overview

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