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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

02 May 2026 15:30 UTC

JUVENTUD DE LAS PIEDRAS vs MONTEVIDEO WANDERERS

Final 2:1

Juventud de las Piedras won Last goal: Juventud de las Piedras

Match timeline

1st half

⚽ José Alberti — Montevideo Wanderers

2nd half

🟥 Franco Risso (straight red) — Juventud de las Piedras
⚽ Patricio Pernicone — Juventud de las Piedras
⚽ Fernando Mimbacas (penalty) — Juventud de las Piedras

Model predictions were

39%

1X2

Juventud de las Piedras

Result: Juventud de las Piedras

57%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes

65%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 2:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 64% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 14 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 265 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 215 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 52% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 50% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 51 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)

Both teams to score 55% (Average)

Total 1.5 41% (Weak)

Total 2.5 43% (Weak)

Total 3.5 76% (Strong)

Total 4.5 94% (Strong)

Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)

148 predictions

Both teams to score 56% (Good)

117 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

132 predictions

Total 2.5 41% (Weak)

78 predictions

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

192 predictions

Total 4.5 93% (Strong)

210 predictions

Match overview

Post-match review for Juventud de las Piedras vs Montevideo Wanderers. The match ended 2-1 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura. The model favored Juventud de las Piedras with a marginal edge (39.3%).

The outcome aligned with the model’s expectation. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 91.6% of matches across a sample of 215 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 54.9% in a sample of 51 team involvements.

Market-level signals were partially accurate across the main goal-related markets. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (64.8%) was identified as a moderate expectation and aligned with the result. Over 2.5 goals (44.6%) was confirmed by the match, both teams to score (56.7%) fell short of the result.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. This prediction analysis remains most effective when result context, market outcomes, and team tendencies are read together.