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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

02 May 2026 21:30 UTC

LIVERPOOL FC vs DANUBIO

Final 3:0

Liverpool FC won Last goal: Liverpool FC

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Federico Martínez — Liverpool FC
🟥 Sebastián Fernández (straight red) — Danubio
⚽ Ramiro Degregorio — Liverpool FC
⚽ Facundo Barceló (penalty) — Liverpool FC

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Liverpool FC

Result: Liverpool FC

48%

Both teams to score

Yes

Chance that both teams score

Result: No

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over

45%

Total 2.5

Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Over

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

Score

2:1

Chance of this exact score

Result: 3:0

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 64 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 265 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 215 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)

Both teams to score 52% (Average)

Total 1.5 54% (Average)

Total 2.5 50% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 52 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)

Both teams to score 44% (Weak)

Total 1.5 63% (Good)

Total 2.5 48% (Average)

Total 3.5 69% (Strong)

Total 4.5 88% (Strong)

Score 4% (Risky)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)

148 predictions

Both teams to score 47% (Average)

98 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

132 predictions

Total 2.5 41% (Weak)

78 predictions

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

192 predictions

Total 4.5 93% (Strong)

210 predictions

Match overview

Detailed match analysis for Liverpool FC vs Danubio after full time. The match ended 3-0 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura. The model leaned toward Liverpool FC with a low-confidence projection (36.6%).

The outcome aligned with the model’s expectation. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 91.6% of matches across a sample of 215 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 44.2% in a sample of 52 team involvements.

Several market indicators held up, while others were not confirmed by the match result. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) came in as a strong signal and was correctly identified. Over 2.5 goals (44.6%) held up in the final outcome, both teams to score (48.2%) fell short of the result.

The model output remains a useful reference when combined with match context. Used with league and team context, this post-match review supports clearer decision-making for upcoming fixtures.