← Back to matches

Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

02 May 2026 18:30 UTC

CERRO vs DEPORTIVO MALDONADO

Final 0:1

Deportivo Maldonado won Last goal: Deportivo Maldonado

Match timeline

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Nicolás Fuica — Deportivo Maldonado

Model predictions were

As expected
Underdog
37%
1X2
Cerro
Result: Deportivo Maldonado
Nice call
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No
Lucky hit
32%
Total 1.5
Under

Chance of 1 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Nice call
55%
Total 2.5
Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
As expected
10%
Score
1:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 38% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+1; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 64 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 28% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 265 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 215 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 54% (Average)
Total 2.5 50% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 39 past matches

1X2 33% (Weak)
Both teams to score 54% (Average)
Total 1.5 56% (Good)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 77% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 10% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
148 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
117 predictions
Total 1.5 35% (Weak)
83 predictions
Total 2.5 55% (Good)
137 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
192 predictions
Total 4.5 93% (Strong)
210 predictions

Match overview

Related matches

Finished
02 May 21:30 UTC
Liverpool FC vs Danubio
1X2 Home
Both teams to score No
Over/Under
1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 4.5 Under
Score 3:0
Finished
02 May 15:30 UTC
Juventud de las Piedras vs Montevideo Wanderers
1X2 Home
Both teams to score Yes
Over/Under
1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 4.5 Under
Score 2:1
Finished
03 May 12:30 UTC
Club Atletico Progreso vs Cerro Largo
1X2 Away
Both teams to score No
Over/Under
1.5 Under 2.5 Under 3.5 Under 4.5 Under
Score 0:1
Finished
03 May 15:00 UTC
Boston River vs Central Espanol
1X2 Home
Both teams to score Yes
Over/Under
1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 Under 4.5 Under
Score 2:1
Finished
03 May 18:30 UTC
Racing vs Montevideo City Torque
1X2 Draw
Both teams to score Yes
Over/Under
1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5 Under 4.5 Under
Score 1:1
Finished
03 May 23:00 UTC
Albion vs Nacional
1X2 Home
Both teams to score Yes
Over/Under
1.5 Over 2.5 Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over
Score 3:2
Finished
04 May 22:30 UTC
Club Atletico Penarol vs Defensor Sporting
1X2 Draw
Both teams to score Yes
Over/Under
1.5 Over 2.5 Under 3.5 Under 4.5 Under
Score 1:1
Postponed
27 Apr 22:30 UTC
Defensor Sporting vs Club Atletico Progreso