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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

03 May 2026 12:30 UTC

CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO vs CERRO LARGO

Final 0:1

Cerro Largo won Last goal: Cerro Largo

Match timeline

2nd half

⚽ Tiziano Correa — Cerro Largo

Model predictions were

37%

1X2

Club Atletico Progreso

Result: Cerro Largo

57%

Both teams to score

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: No

70%

Total 1.5

Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Under

55%

Total 2.5

Under

Chance of 2 or fewer goals

Result: Under

73%

Total 3.5

Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under

89%

Total 4.5

Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under

12%

Score

2:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 0:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 33% (Weak)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+2; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 21 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 268 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 218 completed matches.

1X2 38% (Weak)

Both teams to score 52% (Average)

Total 1.5 55% (Average)

Total 2.5 51% (Average)

Total 3.5 73% (Strong)

Total 4.5 92% (Strong)

Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 52 past matches

1X2 27% (Weak)

Both teams to score 58% (Good)

Total 1.5 60% (Good)

Total 2.5 56% (Good)

Total 3.5 69% (Strong)

Total 4.5 94% (Strong)

Score 12% (Weak)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 38% (Weak)

151 predictions

Both teams to score 56% (Good)

119 predictions

Total 1.5 66% (Strong)

134 predictions

Total 2.5 56% (Good)

138 predictions

Total 3.5 79% (Strong)

195 predictions

Total 4.5 93% (Strong)

213 predictions

Match overview

Final result breakdown for Club Atletico Progreso vs Cerro Largo. The match ended 0-1 in Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura. The model leaned toward Club Atletico Progreso with a low-confidence projection (36.6%).

While the winner prediction missed, other signals held up well. League trends indicate that high-scoring matches are common, with over 4.5 goals appearing in 91.7% of matches across a sample of 218 games. Team-level data also supports an attacking profile, with both teams to score around 57.7% in a sample of 52 team involvements.

Market-level signals were partially accurate across the main goal-related markets. Key market checks included over 1.5 goals (70.1%) was identified as a strong signal and fell short of the result. Over 2.5 goals (55%) was confirmed by the match, both teams to score (56.7%) held up in the final outcome.

Overall, the statistical signals still provided useful context for interpreting the match. Signals remained consistent in parts of the market profile, which keeps the model useful for future match evaluation.

CLUB ATLETICO PROGRESO vs CERRO LARGO

Match timeline

2nd half

Model predictions were

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

League

Teams

Markets

Match overview

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