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Uruguay · Primera Division · Liga AUF Uruguaya Apertura

04 May 2026 22:30 UTC

CLUB ATLETICO PENAROL vs DEFENSOR SPORTING

Final 1:1

Draw Last goal: Defensor Sporting

Match timeline

1st half

  1. ⚽ Leandro Umpierrez — Club Atletico Penarol

2nd half

  1. ⚽ Brian Montenegro — Defensor Sporting
  2. 🟥 Washington Aguerre (2nd yellow) — Club Atletico Penarol

Model predictions were

As expected
Favorite
39%
1X2
Club Atletico Penarol
Result: Draw
As expected
57%
Both teams to score
No

Chance at least one team fails to score

Result: Yes
Solid call
70%
Total 1.5
Over

Chance of 2 or more goals

Result: Over
No surprise
45%
Total 2.5
Over

Chance of 3 or more goals

Result: Under
Solid call
73%
Total 3.5
Under

Chance of 3 or fewer goals

Result: Under
On point
89%
Total 4.5
Under

Chance of 4 or fewer goals

Result: Under
Off target
13%
Score
3:0

Chance of this exact score

Result: 1:1

Model Context Was

Match prediction context

Probability in similar matches 63% (Good)

How often the predicted 1X2 outcome matched the final result in past matches in this league when the model’s predicted score line had the same home-minus-away goal difference (+3; home goals minus away goals).

Based on 16 past matches with this goal margin in this league.

Draw likelihood 27% (Typical)

Historical draw rate in this league. Low / Typical / High is relative to usual draw frequencies, not model accuracy.

Based on 272 finished matches in this league.

League

Historical model performance in this league before this match date.

Based on 221 completed matches.

1X2 37% (Weak)
Both teams to score 52% (Average)
Total 1.5 55% (Average)
Total 2.5 51% (Average)
Total 3.5 73% (Strong)
Total 4.5 92% (Strong)
Score 9% (Weak)

More stats

Teams

This shows how the model performed in matches with these teams.

Based on 54 past matches

1X2 31% (Weak)
Both teams to score 44% (Weak)
Total 1.5 44% (Weak)
Total 2.5 52% (Average)
Total 3.5 74% (Strong)
Total 4.5 94% (Strong)
Score 13% (Good)

Markets

This shows how often each type of prediction was correct in this league.

1X2 37% (Weak)
154 predictions
Both teams to score 56% (Good)
121 predictions
Total 1.5 66% (Strong)
137 predictions
Total 2.5 43% (Weak)
82 predictions
Total 3.5 79% (Strong)
198 predictions
Total 4.5 94% (Strong)
216 predictions

Match overview

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